| Speakers | Comments |
| Thomas Mielke | · Palm oil futures in Malaysia are undervalued and will likely rise to 2,350-2,450 ringgit/ton in the next 4 to 6 months. · Any upside in palm will be limited by high stockpiles and as there isn’t much upward potential in mineral oil prices. · World palm oil production seen growing by 2.8m tons in 2019 to 75.3m tons, vs an increase of 4.2m tons in 2018. Production seen rising to 20.1m tons in Malaysia, 43m tons in Indonesia. · Global palm oil output forecast at 74.9m tons in year ending September 2019 Global palm exports seen rising sharply as dependence on palm increases due to slower supply from other edible oils. · World palm oil production avg growth seen at 2.8m tons per year through 2025, vs annual growth of 3m tons during 2005-2018. · Oil World estimates 20% of oil palm area in Malaysia is 20 years or older. Palm oil consumption seen accelerating to 75m tons this year; half to be used by the biofuel industry, the rest to be used by the food sector. |
| Arif P. Rachmat | · Production will likely rise to 45 million metric tons this year. · Malaysia’s output may increase 4% this year. · Dryer weather may curb production and potentially boost prices. Indonesian govt may raise biodiesel blending to B30 this year, earlier than its plan to do so in 2020 |
| Yusof Basiron | · The palm oil industry still has ample ways of boosting production despite the proposed cap on total oil palm planted area at about 6.5 million hectares. · Over the years, our yields have deteriorated instead of going up. |
| Mohd Nageeb | · Malaysian palm oil producers are requesting that the government “stall all negotiations on business dealings” with the European Union (EU), in light of the latter’s push to curb usage of the commodity in biofuels. · This is amid concerns over the EU’s ‘articulate’ implementation of new restrictions on palm oil despite ongoing efforts by producers to adhere to guidelines on sustainable production |
| James Fry | · If Brent settles at $65, the (free on board) price will be $580, or 2,360 ringgit, a tonne, and at $60 a barrel, it would be $550, or 2,240 ringgit, a tonne. · Palm oil prices are linked to the crude oil market due to the growing use of the commodity in making renewable fuels, Fry said. Expansion in biodiesel production is also helping to draw down inventories and support prices. · World palm oil production growth is expected to slow in 2019, with output rising by 2.8 million tonnes to 70.9 million tonnes. · Global palm oil stocks would fall by 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes in 2019, if Indonesia holds to its so-called B20 mandate that stipulates biodiesel must have a bio-content of 20 percent, and if Malaysia successfully implements a B10 mandate. |
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, The Edge
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