Bali: Key highlights from Indonesia Palm Oil Conference and Outlook
|
Speaker |
Price (per tonne) |
Key Highlights |
| James Fry, LMC International | · EU CPO: US$620 · SEA fob: US$585 · Indonesia internal: US$555 (with export levy down US$20 – US$30) · BMD: RM2,450 (with 5% Malaysian export tax) · EU CPKO: US$825 |
· Global palm oil output will climb by nearly 2.5 million tonnes in 2019, although growth will slow in top producer Indonesia. · Malaysian palm oil stockpiles will peak by year-end, and are seen dropping by 750,000 tonnes between December and June. |
| Togar Sitanggang | · End-2018 US$540-550 · 2019 ASP: US$600-650 |
· GAPKI estimates the country’s palm oil production will reach 42 million tonnes this year · 2019 palm and palm kernel oil production would increase to 51.6 million tonnes, from an estimated 46.9 million tonnes in 2018. |
| Dorab Mistry | · Prices are near the bottom for palm oil. · Price gap between soybean oil and palm olein for Jun-19 contract need to be widen from current US$70/ton |
· The bigger factor affecting the palm price will be a potential El Nino weather phenomenon that could slash output in Indonesia in 2H2019. |
| Thomas Mielke | · Palm oil and soy oil are seen rising by $50 to $100 per tonne in the next nine months. · Malaysian palm oil prices would trade between RM2,200 ($528) and RM2,600 per tonne in 1H19. |
· Global palm oil stocks would peak in November or December this year, before starting to fall in 2019 as growth in output slows. · Malaysian production will hit 20.2 million tonnes next year, up from an estimated 19.6 million tonnes in 2018. · Indonesia’s 2019 output will be at 41.5 million tonnes in 2019, rising from the 39.8 million tonnes expected this year. |
Source: Reuters
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